Dundalk v Sligo Rovers

Dundalk meet Sligo Rovers in the Premier Division regular season - 26 at Oriel Park, Dundalk. The model makes Dundalk the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% DUN, 29% draw, 29% SLI.

Dundalk rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1420. Recent form leans Dundalk, 57% against 38%. Attacking output favors Dundalk on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Dundalk at 59%; double chance reads Dundalk or draw 71%, Sligo Rovers or draw 58%.

Dundalk arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ St Patrick's Athl., W 3-1 @ St Mochta's, L 1-2 v Drogheda United, L 1-2 @ Shelbourne.

Sligo Rovers are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Drogheda United, W 4-0 @ Janesboro, L 1-2 v Coleraine FC, L 2-3 @ Galway United.

Dundalk hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sligo Rovers 2-0 Dundalk.

The market prices DUN at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Sligo Rovers: a 13.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.