Chapecoense-sc v Vasco DA Gama

Chapecoense-sc meet Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A regular season - 21. The model makes Vasco DA Gama the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% CHA, 31% draw, 37% VAS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 45%. Attacking output favors Vasco DA Gama on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Vasco DA Gama at 54%; double chance reads Chapecoense-sc or draw 63%, Vasco DA Gama or draw 68%.

Chapecoense-sc arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Santos, L 0-4 v Flamengo, L 0-2 @ Bahia, W 2-1 @ Gremio.

Vasco DA Gama are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 2-2 @ Independiente Medellin, L 0-1 @ Vitoria, L 0-1 v Atletico-MG.

Vasco DA Gama hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 7 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.

The market prices CHA at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Chapecoense-sc: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.