Bangor City 1876 FC v Caerau (Ely): the model read
Bangor City 1876 FC meet Caerau (Ely) in the Welsh Cup quarter-finals. The model makes Caerau (Ely) the most likely outcome at 56%, with the full read 20% BAN, 24% draw, 56% CAE.
Caerau (Ely) rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1609 to 1400. Recent form leans Caerau (Ely), 65% against 33%. Attacking output favors Caerau (Ely) on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans Caerau (Ely) at 73%; double chance reads Bangor City 1876 FC or draw 44%, Caerau (Ely) or draw 80%.
Bangor City 1876 FC arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Flint Town United, W 3-1 v Caerau (Ely), W 2-0 v Trefelin, W 2-1 v Holywell.
Caerau (Ely) are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 4-4 v Barnstaple Town, L 1-2 @ Haverfordwest County AFC, L 0-2 @ Evesham United, W 5-1 v Croesyceiliog AFC.
Bangor City 1876 FC hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bangor City 1876 FC 3-1 Caerau (Ely).
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
