Orlando City SC v Nashville SC

Orlando City SC meet Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 19. The model makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 54%, with the full read 21% ORL, 25% draw, 54% NAS.

Nashville SC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1489. Recent form leans Nashville SC, 73% against 45%. Attacking output favors Orlando City SC on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Nashville SC at 73%; double chance reads Orlando City SC or draw 46%, Nashville SC or draw 79%.

Orlando City SC arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 15 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ San Jose Earthquakes, L 2-6 @ FC Cincinnati, W 4-1 v Atlanta United FC, D 1-1 v Atlanta United FC.

Nashville SC are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v CF Montreal, W 1-0 v Atlanta United FC, W 2-1 v New York City FC, W 3-2 v Los Angeles FC.

Orlando City SC hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nashville SC 5-0 Orlando City SC.

The market prices ORL at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Nashville SC: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.