Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City

Los Angeles Galaxy meet St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer regular season - 18 at Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson. The model makes St. Louis City the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% LOS, 29% draw, 40% ST..

The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans St. Louis City, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors St. Louis City on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans St. Louis City at 57%; double chance reads Los Angeles Galaxy or draw 60%, St. Louis City or draw 69%.

Los Angeles Galaxy arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v St. Louis City, L 0-3 v Los Angeles FC, W 1-0 v Club America, L 0-3 v El Salvador.

St. Louis City are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Los Angeles Galaxy, W 3-2 v Sporting Kansas City, W 3-0 v Austin, D 2-2 v Houston Dynamo.

St. Louis City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City.

The market prices LOS at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on St. Louis City: a 9.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.