Dender v Union St. Gilloise: the model read
Dender meet Union St. Gilloise in the Cup quarter-finals at Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw. The model makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely outcome at 60%, with the full read 17% DEN, 23% draw, 60% UNI.
Union St. Gilloise rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1400. Recent form leans Union St. Gilloise, 80% against 26%. Attacking output favors Union St. Gilloise on expected goals, 2.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Union St. Gilloise at 78%; double chance reads Dender or draw 40%, Union St. Gilloise or draw 83%.
Dender arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Lommel United, L 2-3 @ Lommel United, L 1-2 @ Zulte Waregem, W 2-1 v RAAL La Louvière.
Union St. Gilloise are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 15 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Lille, W 4-0 v Patro Eisden, L 3-7 @ PSV Eindhoven, W 2-1 v Aarhus.
Union St. Gilloise hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
