Ancona v Francavilla: the model read
Ancona meet Francavilla in the Coppa Italia Serie D semi-finals at Stadio del Conero, Ancona. The model makes Ancona the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% ANC, 32% draw, 31% FRA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ancona, 65% against 53%. Attacking output favors Ancona on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Ancona at 55%; double chance reads Ancona or draw 69%, Francavilla or draw 63%.
Ancona arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Notaresco, D 1-1 v Notaresco, D 0-0 @ L'Aquila, W 3-0 v Sammaurese.
Francavilla are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Afragolese, D 2-2 @ Sarnese, W 3-0 @ Virtus Francavilla, W 4-1 v Real Acerrana.
Ancona hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Francavilla 0-1 Ancona.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
