Al Ahly defeated Ceramica Cleopatra 2-1 in the Super Cup semi-final at the Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured, giving the Egyptian champions a 40 per cent win probability against 28 per cent for their opponents.
The decisive action came in the first half hour of each period. Al Ahly took the lead in the 19th minute through Trezeguet, who was assisted by Zizo. Ceramica Cleopatra responded with an equaliser in the 41st minute, M. Otaka scoring with help from A. Belhadji. The winner arrived early in the second half, when N. Gradisar found the net in the 52nd minute from an A. Bencharki assist. All three goals were classified as normal finishes, with no penalties or own goals involved.
Ceramica Cleopatra will regret the timing of their concession in the second half, having worked hard to restore parity before the interval. The defensive unit, which had held firm for the final minutes of the first period, was breached again within seven minutes of the restart. Al Ahly, by contrast, showed efficiency in converting their openings, scoring from two of what the data shows was a modest number of efforts.
Discipline was a minor factor in the contest. Ceramica Cleopatra received two yellow cards, H. El Sayed cautioned in the 63rd minute and I. Issa in the 98th. Zizo was booked for Al Ahly in the 73rd minute. Both sides made four substitutions, suggesting a physical contest that required rotation but no forced changes due to injury.
The match statistics reinforce a narrative of a close, competitive encounter rather than a dominant display by either side. Possession was evenly split, with Al Ahly holding a marginal advantage. The shot counts were broadly similar, as were the shots on target, indicating that both defences were largely effective in limiting clear opportunities. Expected goals figures would have reflected the narrow margin of the result, with neither side creating a significant volume of high-quality chances. Passing accuracy was comparable, though Al Ahly may have edged the key passes into the final third that led to their goals.
Among the named players, Trezeguet and N. Gradisar were the match-winners with their goals, while Zizo and A. Bencharki contributed the assists that proved decisive. M. Otaka was Ceramica Cleopatra's most effective attacker, getting the goal that kept his side in the contest until the early second half. A. Belhadji's assist for that goal was a standout moment for the losing side. H. El Sayed and I. Issa will be disappointed with their bookings, but neither dismissal altered the course of the game.
The victory sends Al Ahly into the Super Cup final, a significant step in their bid to add silverware to their domestic dominance. For Ceramica Cleopatra, the semi-final exit ends their run in the competition, but they will take encouragement from a performance that was competitive for long periods and required only minor lapses in concentration to be turned in their favour. The Lemeister model's projection of a one-goal margin proved accurate, though the identity of the victor was never in serious doubt after Gradisar's early second-half strike.
