A 2-2 draw between Ternana and Fiorentina at Stadio Libero Liberati was decided by Fiorentina's ability to recover from a two-goal deficit, a comeback driven by a wide margin of territorial and creative control that the scoreline alone does not fully capture. Ternana's early efficiency gave them a commanding lead, but the data shows Fiorentina's sustained pressure, reflected in 68% ball possession, 17 total shots and 11 on target, was always likely to find a route back. The Lemeister model had favoured Fiorentina with a 41% win probability, and while the result fell short of that, the visitors' dominance in the underlying numbers made the draw feel like a narrow escape for the home side.
The match began with a decisive penalty for Ternana. V. Pirone converted from the spot in the fifth minute to give the hosts an early lead. Just seven minutes later, A. Regazzoli doubled the advantage with a goal that arrived from open play, leaving Fiorentina facing a steep uphill climb. Ternana had taken two of their four total shots on target in the opening quarter of an hour, converting both with ruthless efficiency. The home side's approach was direct and economical, but their limited share of the ball, finishing the half with only 32% possession, indicated that Fiorentina would get chances to respond.
Fiorentina's pressure finally told just before half-time. In the 45th minute, M. Cherubini scored from a goal created by S. Bredgaard, whose assist pulled one back and gave the visitors real momentum heading into the interval. The goal was the culmination of a first half in which Fiorentina had registered seven shots, four on target, and earned five corner kicks to Ternana's one. The second half began with Fiorentina still pressing, though Filippa Curmark was booked in the 47th minute for a challenge that reflected the growing intensity.
The equaliser arrived in the 61st minute, again with S. Bredgaard as the provider. M. Filangeri finished the chance to make it 2-2, completing a comeback that the statistics had long suggested was probable. Fiorentina ended the match with 17 total shots to Ternana's 11, and their 11 shots on goal forced the Ternana goalkeeper into 10 saves, a figure that underscores how heavily the home side were defending. Ternana's goalkeeper made more saves than any other player on the pitch, a clear indicator of Fiorentina's control. The visitors also dominated passing, completing 338 accurate passes from 430 attempts at 79% accuracy, compared to Ternana's 112 from 203 at 55%.
Discipline became a minor factor late on, with Maria Filangeri booked in the 72nd minute and Sofie Bredgaard cautioned in the 82nd. Both teams finished with 14 fouls each, but Fiorentina collected three yellow cards to Ternana's one, a sign of the visitors' greater commitment in the challenge as they chased the game. The home side, by contrast, committed fewer fouls after the opening period and had only Marika Massimino shown a yellow card in the 26th minute.
In the context of the Serie A Women regular season, the draw sees Ternana drop points after a fast start, while Fiorentina will view the recovery as a missed opportunity to claim a win that their performance metrics merited. With two goals conceded inside 12 minutes, the visitors showed resilience, but the 10 saves from the Ternana goalkeeper and the 2.2 expected goals deficit implied by the shot count tell a story of a team that should have taken more. The result leaves both sides with work to do in their push for position, but the data suggests Fiorentina are creating enough to turn draws into wins if they can sharpen their finishing.
