Indonesia fell to a 1-0 defeat against Iraq in Jeddah, a result that the data shows was decided by a single moment of quality from Iraq's Z. Iqbal in the 76th minute. Despite controlling the larger share of possession and generating more shots, Indonesia could not find the net, undone by a lack of incision in the final third and a disciplined Iraqi defensive performance. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow away victory for Indonesia, giving them a 40% chance of winning compared to Iraq's 29%, making this result a notable upset in the context of the model's pre-match read.
The only goal arrived with 14 minutes of normal time remaining. Z. Iqbal finished from close range, with Y. Amyn credited for the assist in a normal goal. The strike was Iraq's only shot on target in the entire match, a statistic that underscores how clinical they were with their limited opportunities. Indonesia, by contrast, registered nine total shots but managed just one on target, a 73rd-minute effort that was comfortably saved by the Iraq goalkeeper. That single save encapsulated Indonesia's attacking struggles: they had five shots from inside the box and four from outside, yet only one tested the goalkeeper.
The statistical landscape tells a story of Indonesian dominance in phases that did not translate into clear danger. They held 55% of the ball, completed 367 passes to Iraq's 298, and recorded a superior pass accuracy of 79% to 73%. They also won four corners to Iraq's three. However, the expected goals data, as reflected in the wider shot count, tells a different story. Indonesia's nine shots produced only one on target, while Iraq's seven produced two. The defensive discipline of Iraq, who committed only six fouls to Indonesia's 18, kept the Indonesian attack at arm's length.
The match was a fractious affair, particularly as tension built in the second half. Indonesia collected six yellow cards, a tally that points to frustration and a team that was increasingly forced into tactical fouls while chasing the game. Calvin Verdonk, Ricky Kambuaya, Mauro Zijlstra, Ole Romeny, Miliano Jonathans and Rizky Ridho were all booked for the visitors. Iraq's evening was marred by a late red card for Zaid Tahseen, who received a second yellow card in the 99th minute after being cautioned in the 68th. Despite being down to ten men for the final moments, Iraq held firm to secure the victory.
Among the individual performers, Indonesia's Thom Haye stood out with a match-high rating of 7.7, reflecting his influence in midfield. For Iraq, Zaid Tahseen (7.3), Hussein Ali (7.2), Youssef Amyn (7.2) and the goalscorer Zidane Iqbal (7.2) were all notable. Indonesia's centre-back Jay Idzes also earned a 7.2 rating, underlining a solid defensive display that was ultimately undone by a single lapse. The rating of 7.7 for Haye suggests he was the best player on the pitch, but his team could not convert his creative efforts into goals.
The result leaves Indonesia on 10 points in Round 4 of World Cup Qualification. With the Lemeister model having favoured them to win, this loss represents a setback in their pursuit of qualification. Iraq, who had less of the ball and fewer shots but took their one clear chance, move to 11 points, taking control of the group. For Indonesia, the path forward will require converting the possession and shot volume they generated here into actual goals, while avoiding the disciplinary issues that saw them finish with six yellow cards and a defeat.
Iraq 
