Utrillas v Caspe: the model read
Utrillas meet Caspe in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 group 17 - 34. The model makes Caspe the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 28% UTR, 30% draw, 42% CAS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Caspe, 55% against 38%. Attacking output favors Utrillas on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Caspe at 60%; double chance reads Utrillas or draw 58%, Caspe or draw 72%.
Utrillas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Caspe, L 0-5 @ Binéfar, D 3-3 v UD Casetas, W 2-0 @ Zuera.
Caspe are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Cuarte, D 1-1 v Cuarte, W 2-1 @ Utrillas, L 1-2 v CDJ Tamarite.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Utrillas 1-2 Caspe.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
