La Calzada defeated Pradejón 3-1 at Estadio El Rollo, a result the Lemeister model had rated as a 36% probability, making the home side narrow favourites. The win was built on a decisive late surge, with two goals in the final four minutes turning a 1-1 deadlock into a comfortable victory. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow 1-0 home win, but the actual 3-1 margin exceeded that forecast due to the late double, suggesting La Calzada outperformed their expected output in the closing stages.
The opening goal arrived in the 18th minute when M. Muro put La Calzada ahead. Pradejón responded before half-time, with M. Cordon equalising in the 37th minute. For the next 50 minutes the match remained finely balanced, with neither side able to find a breakthrough until the closing stages. The absence of any card data indicates a disciplined contest, but the pattern of play shifted decisively late on. All four goals were normal goals, with no assists recorded, pointing to individual finishing rather than elaborate build-up play.
La Calzada's second goal came from D. Soto in the 87th minute, breaking the deadlock and putting the home side back in front. Two minutes later, in the 89th minute, A. Baztan added a third to seal the result. The rapidity of those two goals suggests Pradejón were forced to push forward after falling behind, leaving space that La Calzada exploited effectively. M. Cordon was the only away goal scorer, while M. Muro, D. Soto, and A. Baztan each contributed for the home side.
The lack of comprehensive match statistics, no shots, possession, expected goals, or passing data were provided, limits the depth of tactical analysis possible. However, the timing of the goals tells a clear story: La Calzada were patient, absorbing pressure after conceding the equaliser, and then struck with precision in the final minutes. Pradejón, by contrast, were unable to hold their shape or concentration as the match entered its decisive phase. The clean disciplinary record suggests a relatively calm match, though the late flurry of goals may have been accompanied by increased intensity.
No player ratings were available, so standout individual performances cannot be assessed beyond the goal scorers. This absence of granular data means any evaluation of defensive contributions, passing accuracy, or duels won is impossible. The three home goals were shared among three different players, while Pradejón's solitary strike came from one, indicating a more distributed threat from La Calzada.
In the context of Tercera División RFEF Group 16, this victory strengthens La Calzada's position in the table, providing valuable momentum in the closing stages of the season. For Pradejón, the defeat is a setback, particularly given how close they came to earning a point before the final minutes. The 3-1 scoreline may flatter La Calzada slightly based on the model's projection, but the clinical finishing in the dying moments ultimately separated the sides. La Calzada will be pleased with their resilience and finishing under pressure, while Pradejón will rue their inability to see out the draw after working hard to stay level for so long. The result keeps La Calzada in contention for higher positions, while Pradejón face the challenge of recovering from a defeat that felt avoidable until the final minutes.
