UD San Pedro edged Arenas Armilla 2-1 at the Estadio Municipal, a result that the Lemeister model had read as finely balanced with the draw the narrow favourite at 33 per cent, home and away each also at 33 per cent. Possession, shots and expected goals data were not recorded in the match file, so the decisive factors must be inferred from the goal sequence and the lack of any cards or substitutions. The home side struck first through N. Lepeira in the 24th minute, a routine goal that gave them a platform. Arenas Armilla responded ten minutes into the second half when D. Salvatierra levelled in the 55th minute, but UD San Pedro reclaimed the lead through I. Navarro Benito in the 76th minute to secure all three points.
The opening goal arrived just before the half-hour mark, with N. Lepeira converting what is classified as a normal goal, with no assist credited. This gave the hosts a lead they held until the 55th minute, when D. Salvatierra equalised for Arenas Armilla, also without an assist. The match remained level for just over 20 minutes before I. Navarro Benito struck the decisive goal in the 76th minute, again a normal goal with no assist. The timing of the winner, relatively late in the contest, will have been especially valuable for UD San Pedro, denying the visitors time to mount a second response.
With no statistics available for possession, shots, expected goals, pass completion or corners, the analysis is necessarily limited. The absence of any cards, yellow or red, suggests a disciplined contest with few cynical fouls or tactical infringements. The zero substitution count for both sides indicates that both managers kept their starting XIs on the pitch for the full 90 minutes, which may reflect either satisfaction with the performers' output or a lack of depth on the bench. Without shot data, it is impossible to assess which team created the clearer opportunities, but the final scoreline implies that UD San Pedro were more clinical when it mattered.
In terms of individual contributions, only the three goalscorers are nameable from the available data. N. Lepeira opened the scoring and set the tone for the home side, his goal arriving at a critical juncture just before the half-hour mark. D. Salvatierra provided Arenas Armilla's only bright spot with a well-taken equaliser that briefly restored parity. I. Navarro Benito delivered the match-winner, ensuring his side would not drop points after conceding the equaliser. Without match ratings, it is impossible to assess broader performances across the pitch, but the named players clearly influenced the final outcome.
The result carries significance in the context of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table, with UD San Pedro collecting three vital home points to strengthen their position in the mid-to-lower half of the standings. For Arenas Armilla, the defeat away from home is a missed opportunity to gain ground on their rivals, especially after restoring parity in the second half. The narrow margin and absence of statistical dominance from either side underlines how fine the margins were on this evening. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 33 per cent chance for each of home win, draw and away win accurately reflected the competitive nature of the fixture, even if the data available for this report is sparse. The clean sheet for neither defence and the three normal goals without assists suggest a match decided by individual finishing rather than structured build-up play.
