Montañas Pas 3-7 Escobedo
A remarkable 10-goal match at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo saw Escobedo overwhelm Montañas Pas by a 7-3 scoreline, a result that confounded the Lemeister model's pre-match forecast. The model had expected a narrow away win, giving Escobedo a 57 per cent chance of victory with a projected 3-0 scoreline, but the actual contest produced more than three times that number of goals and a far more emphatic margin than anticipated. The visitors' commanding performance was driven by an extraordinary individual display from S. Basterrechea, who scored four goals, and a relentless first-half offensive that left the home side chasing the game from an early stage.
Escobedo struck first through A. Garcia in the seventh minute, but Montañas Pas responded swiftly when M. Diliberto equalised in the 11th minute. The visitors then took control of the first half in devastating fashion. S. Basterrechea scored twice in the space of 10 minutes, first in the 22nd and then in the 32nd minute, before R. Garcia added a fifth goal for Escobedo in the 34th minute. The scoring continued at a frantic pace as M. Garcia Saiz made it 5-1 in the 44th minute, only for J. Santos to pull one back for Montañas Pas in the same minute, leaving the score at 5-2 at the break. That burst of five goals in 22 minutes effectively decided the contest, as Escobedo capitalised on every attacking opportunity while the home defence struggled to contain the visitors' forward momentum.
The second half offered no respite for the home side. A. Cobo reduced the deficit to 5-3 in the 55th minute, briefly suggesting a potential comeback. However, S. Basterrechea had other ideas, completing his hat-trick with a goal in the 73rd minute and then adding a fourth personal strike in the 81st minute to seal the final score of 7-3. S. Basterrechea's four goals were the defining factor in the match, accounting for more than half of Escobedo's total and rendering any defensive resistance from Montañas Pas irrelevant. His ability to find the net consistently across both halves highlighted the visitors' attacking depth and the home side's inability to adjust their defensive shape.
Despite the absence of detailed match statistics and player ratings in the available data, the goal sequence alone paints a clear picture of how the match was decided. Escobedo's ability to score in clusters proved decisive: they netted three goals between the 22nd and 34th minutes to turn a 1-1 draw into a 4-1 lead, and then added two more before half-time to effectively end the contest. Montañas Pas, for their part, showed resilience in scoring three times themselves, but their defensive frailties were exposed repeatedly, particularly in open play where all 10 goals were scored without a single assist recorded. The absence of any cards in the match suggests a contest played without undue physical confrontation, yet the sheer volume of goals indicates significant defensive lapses on both sides, with the visitors proving more clinical in their finishing.
The result carries significant implications for the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 table. Escobedo's emphatic away victory, secured without any cards issued and with no substitutions made by either side, reinforces their position as a team capable of scoring freely on their travels. For Montañas Pas, conceding seven goals at home represents a considerable setback, and their inability to contain a single opposition player - S. Basterrechea - will be a concern as the season enters its final phase. The Lemeister model's projection of a 57 per cent chance for an Escobedo win was accurate in outcome but underestimated both the margin and the volume of goals, with the actual final score far exceeding any reasonable expectation based on the pre-match data. The result also highlights the unpredictability inherent in this level of competition, where individual brilliance can overturn statistical forecasts and produce scorelines that defy conventional analysis.
