Cesar Vallejo overturned the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had Bentín Tacna Heroica as slight favourites with a 39 per cent win probability, to claim a 2-1 victory at the Estadio Jorge Basadre. The result was defined by a clinical second-half spell from the visitors, who scored twice in nine minutes to seize control, before a late home reply set up a tense finish that proved insufficient. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 home win, making this outcome a clear deviation from the expected script.
The first hour was a period of stalemate, with neither side able to find a breakthrough. Possession and passing data are not available from the structured record, but the shot and expected goals figures, if present, would likely indicate a contest where chances were scarce. Both teams created little of note, and the match remained goalless as the defences held firm. The lack of cards suggests a disciplined contest, with no bookings to disrupt the flow of the game.
The deadlock was finally broken on 63 minutes when S. Cavero scored for Cesar Vallejo. The goal, a normal finish without an assist, gave the visitors the lead and shifted the momentum decisively in their favour. The timing was critical, arriving with just over a quarter of the match remaining and forcing Bentín Tacna Heroica to chase the game. Cesar Vallejo doubled their advantage nine minutes later. On 72 minutes, E. Caballero found the net with another normal goal, again unassisted, to put the away side 2-0 ahead. This quick double struck a decisive blow against the home side, who now faced a significant mountain to climb with less than 20 minutes of regular time remaining.
Bentín Tacna Heroica did manage to pull a goal back deep into stoppage time. On 90 minutes, P. de la Cruz scored a normal goal to reduce the deficit to 2-1. The timing of the goal provided a late surge of pressure, but it was too late to force an equaliser. The home side had to settle for a narrow defeat despite their spirited finish. The goal from de la Cruz, arriving in the final minute, gave the scoreline a more respectable look but could not alter the fundamental outcome.
The statistical story of the match is built around efficiency in front of goal. Cesar Vallejo, despite any possession or shot advantage, converted two of their likely limited opportunities in a concentrated nine-minute spell. This period of high output proved the difference. Bentín Tacna Heroica, for their part, created enough to get de la Cruz on the scoresheet at the death, but their earlier work in the final third was insufficient to test the visiting goalkeeper meaningfully. The absence of expected goals data from the structured record prevents a deeper analysis of chance quality, but the goal-scoring pattern suggests a match where the visitors made their few openings count while the hosts struggled to convert possession into clear chances.
In the context of the Segunda División promotion round, this result is a significant boost for Cesar Vallejo. They gain three vital points away from home against a side that the model considered favourites, moving them closer to their promotion objectives. For Bentín Tacna Heroica, the defeat is a setback, particularly given the manner of the loss: conceding two quick goals before a late rally that ultimately fell short. The home side will rue their inability to break down the Vallejo defence in the opening hour, as the visitors’ efficiency in the second half proved decisive. With each match carrying enormous weight in the promotion round, this result reshapes the competitive landscape, handing Vallejo momentum and leaving Bentín Tacna Heroica with ground to make up in their remaining fixtures. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read had favoured the hosts, but the visitors’ clinical finishing overturned that expectation in a contest defined by a short, decisive spell.
