Leixoes overturned a first-half deficit to beat Chaves 2-1 at the Estadio Municipal de Chaves, a result that aligned closely with the Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a narrow away victory. The model had given Leixoes a 40 per cent chance of winning, with the draw at 30 per cent and a Chaves victory at 31 per cent, and the projected scoreline of 1-2 proved accurate. The visitors controlled the statistical narrative despite falling behind early, ultimately turning the game with two goals either side of half-time.
Chaves took the lead from the penalty spot in the 21st minute, with Roberto converting after a foul in the area. The home side's advantage lasted only 11 minutes. Leixoes equalised in the 32nd minute when Luccas Paraizo finished a move initiated by N. Serif. The second half brought the decisive moment in the 69th minute, when B. Rochez scored what proved to be the winner, assisted by Luccas Paraizo. The goal was merited by the overall flow of the match, as Leixoes had been progressively building pressure through superior possession and more coherent build-up play.
The statistical story was dominated by Leixoes' territorial control. Their greater share of possession allowed them to dictate the tempo, particularly after the equaliser, when Chaves struggled to regain their early momentum. The visitors created more shots and registered more on target, reflecting their ability to sustain attacks and test the home defence. Expected goals data, though not specified in the provided statistics, would likely have favoured Leixoes given their consistent pressure and the quality of chances created from open play, as opposed to Chaves' reliance on a single penalty. Chaves' attacking threat diminished as the game wore on, with their direct transitions becoming less effective against a well-organised Leixoes back line.
Discipline was an issue for both sides. Chaves received yellow cards for Mamadou Tounkara in the 24th minute and Pedro Pinho in the 90th, while Leixoes had three cautions: Cláudio Araújo in the 15th minute, Lourenco Henriques in the 57th, and Matheus Costa in the 89th. The accumulation of cards, particularly for Leixoes in the second half, suggested a game that became more fractious as the visitors sought to protect their lead. No red cards were issued, and both sides made five substitutions, indicating a match that was contested at a high tempo and with considerable physical commitment.
Player ratings were not provided in the data, so individual performances must be assessed through the goal contributions alone. Luccas Paraizo was central to Leixoes' attacking output, scoring the equaliser and providing the assist for Rochez's winner. His movement and link-up play were clearly instrumental in turning the match. N. Serif's assist from open play demonstrated the quality of Leixoes' build-up, while B. Rochez's decisive strike ensured the visitors took full advantage of their dominance. For Chaves, Roberto's penalty conversion was the only bright spot in an otherwise difficult afternoon, as the home side struggled to create similar opportunities from open play.
The defeat leaves Chaves with work to do in the final round of the Segunda Liga regular season, having failed to build on their early lead at home. Their inability to generate chances outside of set pieces and direct transitions will be a concern, particularly against sides that can control possession as effectively as Leixoes did. Leixoes, by contrast, secured a valuable away win that strengthens their position in the standings, demonstrating patience and quality to fall behind and then take control of the match. The result was within the Lemeister model's expected range, reflecting a contest where the stronger possession and attacking structure predicted by the model prevailed over Chaves' early penalty, and Leixoes now head into the final round with momentum on their side.
