Carroi secured a 2-1 victory over Inter Club d'Escaldes in the 1a Divisió Regular Season - 27, a result that the Lemeister model had considered unlikely. The model gave Inter Club d'Escaldes a 59 per cent chance of winning, projecting a 0-3 away victory, but the data shows Carroi were more efficient in front of goal, converting two of their opportunities from a lower expected total. The match was decided by a late winner, but the statistical story reveals a contest that became progressively fractured, with discipline and composure at a premium for both sides.
The scoring began in the 15th minute when K. Otto put Carroi ahead with a Normal Goal. The goal stood without an assist, a straightforward strike that gave the home side an early platform. F. Chouaib equalised for Inter Club d'Escaldes in the 45th minute, also a Normal Goal without an assist, ensuring the teams went into the interval level at 1-1. The match appeared to be heading for a draw until F. Omar struck in the 90th minute for Carroi, a Normal Goal that decided the contest at the death. No further statistical detail about the construction of these goals is available in the structured data.
The statistical profile of the match is limited by the available data, but the pattern of the game can be inferred from the cards and substitutions. A total of seven yellow cards were shown: three to Inter Club d'Escaldes and four to Carroi. The first booking came in the 19th minute to an Inter Club d'Escaldes player, and both sides received two cards in quick succession just after half-time, in the 46th minute. This suggests a contest that became increasingly physical and stretched, particularly in the second half, as both sides pushed for the decisive goal. The high card count points to a match where midfield control was repeatedly disrupted, and both sets of players struggled to maintain composure under pressure. Carroi made three substitutions, Inter Club d'Escaldes made four, indicating both sets of coaching staff felt the need to change the game from the bench, though no individual substitutes can be named from the data.
The standout performers by match rating were the three nameable players, each having directly influenced the scoreline. K. Otto provided the opening goal, F. Chouaib the equaliser, and F. Omar the winner. Without detailed ratings data for the entire squad, it is the goal contributions that define their individual impact. For Inter Club d'Escaldes, the defeat will be particularly frustrating given they were clear favourites and created one of the three goals in the match, but could not convert their overall advantage into more than a single goal. The absence of any recorded shots, shots on target, possession or expected goals figures means the team's overall dominance cannot be quantified from the data, only inferred from the model's pre-match projection.
The result leaves Carroi with three valuable points as they continue their campaign, a significant boost against a side rated higher by the forecasting model. For Inter Club d'Escaldes, this represents a missed opportunity to consolidate their position; they will need to address their finishing efficiency and discipline, having collected three yellow cards, if they are to avoid further upsets in the run-in. The Lemeister model's pre-match read favoured the visitors by a wide margin, but the data that emerged from the match shows a different story, one where Carroi's ability to strike at crucial moments outweighed any theoretical advantage held by Inter Club d'Escaldes.
