Arouca v Benfica: the model read
Arouca meet Benfica in the Primeira Liga regular season - 26 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 27% ARO, 28% draw, 44% BEN.
Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans Benfica, 70% against 48%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 62%; double chance reads Arouca or draw 56%, Benfica or draw 73%.
Arouca arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Santa Clara, D 0-0 @ Famalicao, D 0-0 @ Feirense, L 1-2 @ Rio Ave.
Benfica are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v CF Os Belenenses, L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
