FC Ingolstadt 04 overturned an early deficit to defeat Havelse 3-2 at the Audi Sportpark, a result that the underlying data suggests was clear and deserved even if the scoreline remained nervous until the final whistle. The home side dominated with 59% possession and generated an expected goals tally of 4.17, by some margin the decisive statistical indicator of the afternoon. Havelse, who struck first through N. Boujellab, managed only 1.18 xG and were outshot 23-11, making their late consolation from E. Aytun little more than window dressing.
Havelse stunned the home side after 11 minutes when N. Boujellab converted from J. Oltrogge's assist. The goal arrived against the logic of the opening exchanges, as Ingolstadt had already accumulated five shots from inside the box by that stage and had forced Havelse's goalkeeper into early work. The visitors held the lead until half-time, but the balance of play was overwhelmingly in Ingolstadt's favour. The home side ended the first period with 62% possession and had created enough openings to suggest an equaliser was only a matter of time.
Ingolstadt's persistence paid off five minutes into the second half. D. Kaygin levelled from M. Costly's assist, and the home side then took control of the contest. M. Besuschkow put them ahead in the 58th minute with an unassisted goal, and M. Costly added a third in the 85th minute from Y. Sturm's pass, effectively ending the contest as a contest. Havelse pulled one back in the 90th minute through E. Aytun, assisted by M. Ilic, but the goal came too late to affect the outcome.
The shooting data tells the story of Ingolstadt's dominance in detail. They attempted 16 shots from inside the box to Havelse's eight, and put nine on target to the visitors' five. Ingolstadt also recorded six blocked shots, while Havelse registered none, a further sign of how the home side's attacks were arriving with regularity and from dangerous positions. The visitors managed only three shots outside the box, indicating that they rarely threatened from distance. Havelse's goalkeeper was forced into six saves, while Ingolstadt's goalkeeper made three, reflecting the one-sided nature of the contest. The home side also led on corners, eight to three, and completed 457 accurate passes to Havelse's 279 at an 85% completion rate, underlining their control of possession and territory.
The match ratings highlight the key contributors for Ingolstadt. Y. Sturm earned the highest rating of 8.7, followed closely by M. Costly on 8.6 and M. Besuschkow on 8.5, all of whom were directly involved in the goals and part of a front line that overwhelmed the Havelse defence. Fredrik Carlsen and D. Kaygin each received 7.9, reflecting their influence in midfield and attack. Havelse's only named player in the ratings was J. Berger on 7.5, a reflection of the defensive workload he faced, and the visitors collected two yellow cards, for Manuel Polster and Besfort Kolgeci.
The Lemeister model had entered the match with Ingolstadt as 46% favourites to win and projected a 3-1 home victory. The actual 3-2 result fell within the model's expected range, with Havelse's late goal accounting for the slight deviation. In the context of the 3. Liga table, the win keeps Ingolstadt in touch with the promotion places, their superior expected goals output a reminder of the quality they possess in the final third. Havelse remain in the bottom half, their defensive vulnerabilities again exposed by a side that created chances at will and could have won by a far more emphatic margin.
