VfB Stuttgart delivered a comprehensive 4-0 victory over VfL Wolfsburg at the MHPArena, a result built on a decisive first-half attacking display and near-total control of the contest. The numbers confirm a one-sided encounter: Stuttgart registered 63 per cent possession, amassed 24 total shots to Wolfsburg's 10, and generated an expected goals figure of 3.28 against 0.78. The Lemeister model had favoured Stuttgart with a 47 per cent win probability and projected a 3-1 scoreline, so the actual margin comfortably exceeded that prediction, though the model correctly identified the home side as the likely winner.
The scoring began in the 21st minute when D. Undav converted from an assist by E. Demirovic. Stuttgart doubled their lead nine minutes later, J. Leweling finishing a move set up by C. Fuhrich. Before half-time, the pattern of dominance was sealed: Leweling struck again in the 42nd minute, this time without an assist, to make it 3-0. The final goal arrived in the 90th minute, N. Nartey scoring with T. Tomas providing the assist. All four goals were normal goals, with no penalties or own goals involved, and the timing of the first three within a 21-minute span effectively ended the contest before the interval.
The statistical story reinforces the visual impression of Stuttgart's supremacy. Their 24 shots included 11 on target, with 19 of those attempts coming from inside the penalty area, while Wolfsburg managed only five inside-box shots and three on target. Stuttgart's 632 passes, completed at 87 per cent accuracy, overwhelmed Wolfsburg's 378 passes at 77 per cent, a disparity that points to sustained territorial control. The home side earned seven corners to three, and despite committing only five fouls to Wolfsburg's 17, they collected one yellow card to the visitors' none. The goalkeepers each prevented 0.27 goals above expected, a figure that speaks to the relative calm of Stuttgart's rearguard compared to the workload faced by the Wolfsburg goalkeeper, who made seven saves. Stuttgart's shot volume was relentless: 24 total attempts, including six blocked, indicates repeated penetration of Wolfsburg's defensive structure, while the away side managed just one blocked shot across 90 minutes.
The player ratings underline a standout performance from Jamie Leweling, who earned an 8.9 rating after scoring two first-half goals, his movement and finishing proving decisive in the early stages. Deniz Undav, with a goal and an assist, was rated 8.2, reflecting his direct involvement in the opening goal and his overall contribution to the attack. Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich and Nikolas Nartey each received 7.9, with Nartey also getting on the scoresheet late on to cap a strong midfield performance. Ermedin Demirović, who assisted Undav's opener, was rated 7.7. The consistency of high ratings across the attacking and midfield line reflects the collective nature of Stuttgart's performance, with six home players rated 7.7 or above, while no Wolfsburg player features in the rating data.
The result has clear implications for the Bundesliga standings. For VfB Stuttgart, this emphatic home win provides a significant boost to their campaign, reinforcing their position in the upper half of the table with a goal difference that now benefits from a four-goal margin. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, will look to recover from a defeat in which they were thoroughly outplayed in every key metric, particularly in shot volume and territorial control. The data leaves little room for interpretation: Stuttgart were superior from the first whistle, and the scoreline accurately reflected the gap between the sides on the day. With a projected 3-1 result from the Lemeister model, the actual 4-0 margin underscores how efficiently Stuttgart converted their chances, while Wolfsburg's 0.78 expected goals suggests they created little to trouble the home defence.
