FC St. Pauli secured a 2-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart at the Millerntor-Stadion, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had installed Stuttgart as the 48% favourite, with St. Pauli given just a 26% chance of victory. The final scoreline was ultimately decided by the home side's superior finishing efficiency and their ability to generate high-quality chances, as reflected in the expected goals figures of 1.95 for St. Pauli and 0.84 for Stuttgart.
The breakthrough arrived in the 35th minute when M. Saliakas scored, with A. Pyrka providing the assist. This goal came during a period where St. Pauli were beginning to assert themselves despite having only 32% of the ball in the first half. The second goal arrived from the penalty spot in the 55th minute, converted by D. Sinani after a foul in the box. Stuttgart's response was limited for much of the contest, despite their overwhelming 68% possession, and they did not find the net until the 90th minute when J. Leweling scored, assisted by Jeremy Arevalo. The goal came too late to salvage a point for the visitors.
The statistical chasm in possession was stark. Stuttgart completed 661 passes at an accuracy of 86%, while St. Pauli managed only 307 passes with a 73% success rate. However, the home side were far more incisive when they did have the ball. St. Pauli registered 15 total shots to Stuttgart’s seven, with seven of those on target compared to just three for the visitors. Furthermore, St. Pauli attempted ten shots from inside the box, five more than Stuttgart did. This location of shooting was the primary driver of their higher expected goals total.
The goalkeepers on both sides were required to be busy. St. Pauli’s keeper, who is not named in the data, made two saves, while Stuttgart’s Alexander Nübel, who earned a match rating of 7.9, was forced into five saves. The advanced metric of goals prevented was identical at 0.77 for both goalkeepers, suggesting that they both performed equally well relative to the chances they faced. The home defence also blocked five shots, double Stuttgart’s two, which further contributed to suppressing the visitors' threat.
The standout individual performance came from Manolis Saliakas, who scored and earned the highest match rating of 8.2. Arkadiusz Pyrka, who provided the assist for the opener, was rated at 7.3. For Stuttgart, Jamie Leweling scored and posted a 7.7 rating, while Maximilian Mittelstädt and Angelo Stiller each recorded 7.3. Stuttgart’s frustrations boiled over with yellow cards for Deniz Undav in the 57th minute and Ermedin Demirović in the 72nd minute.
The result moves St. Pauli onto 27 points for the Bundesliga season, a significant boost in their bid to climb the table and further close the gap to mid-table security. For Stuttgart, it is a missed opportunity. Despite controlling the ball and the tempo for large spells, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and defensive lapses at key moments cost them. They remain in contention for European places but will now look to recover points more efficiently from their dominant performances.
