MVV v Willem II: the model read
MVV meet Willem II in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 33 at De Geusselt, Maastricht. The model makes Willem II the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 20% MVV, 27% draw, 53% WIL.
Willem II rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1400. Recent form leans Willem II, 71% against 38%. Attacking output favors Willem II on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Willem II at 73%; double chance reads MVV or draw 47%, Willem II or draw 80%.
MVV arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ EVV, D 0-0 v Racing FC Union Luxembourg, D 0-0 @ Seraing United, W 4-1 @ FC Viktoria Köln.
Willem II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v FC Eindhoven, L 1-2 v Quick Boys, W 2-1 @ FC Volendam, L 1-2 v FC Volendam.
Willem II hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
