AZ Alkmaar v Fortuna Sittard: the model read
AZ Alkmaar meet Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie regular season - 29 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% AZ , 27% draw, 27% FOR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans AZ Alkmaar, 58% against 43%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans AZ Alkmaar at 64%; double chance reads AZ Alkmaar or draw 73%, Fortuna Sittard or draw 54%.
AZ Alkmaar arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Zulte Waregem, L 0-1 v Anderlecht, W 2-1 v Almere City FC, D 3-3 v Gent.
Fortuna Sittard are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Olympiakos Piraeus, W 2-1 v Genk, W 1-0 v K. Lierse S.K., L 0-2 @ Utrecht.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
