Cairese secured their place in the division with a 2-0 victory over Chieri at the Stadio Cesare Brin, a result that the underlying numbers show was built on an efficient conversion of early chances. The Lemeister model had entered the fixture with Cairese as marginal favourites at a 39 percent win probability, a projection they bettered by delivering a clean, controlled performance. The home side struck twice in the first half and then managed the contest effectively, restricting Chieri to minimal offensive output.
The opening goal arrived in the 16th minute when F. Vignaroli found the net, giving the home side an early advantage. Cairese doubled their lead before half-time, with L. Fernandez converting from the penalty spot in the 39th minute. Those two goals, separated by 23 minutes, proved more than sufficient. Chieri, facing a two-goal deficit with still the majority of the match to play, were unable to mount any meaningful response, a failure reflected in the possession and shot statistics.
The statistical picture reinforces the dominance of the home side. Cairese held 57 percent of possession, dictating the tempo and limiting Chieri to a chasing role. They registered 13 total shots to Chieri's six, and crucially placed five of those attempts on target against their opponents' two. The shot map tells a story of control rather than chaos; Cairese averaged 0.37 xG per shot, suggesting their efforts came from promising areas. Chieri managed only 0.09 xG per attempt, highlighting a failure to penetrate the final third with any real threat. Expected goals totals further underscore the gap, with Cairese accumulating 1.8 xG to Chieri's 0.5, a disparity that aligns with the two-goal margin.
Passing accuracy mirrored the pattern, with Cairese completing 81 percent of their passes compared to Chieri's 75 percent. This 6 percent difference in accuracy, sustained over the 90 minutes, contributed to Cairese's territorial control. The hosts also earned six corners to Chieri's three, further evidence of sustained attacking pressure. Defensively, Cairese committed the same number of fouls as their opponents, indicating a disciplined structure that did not rely on cynical interventions. With no cards issued and no substitutions made by either side, the match was contested without the usual disruptions of yellow cards or tactical reshuffles, allowing the starting lineups to settle into a pattern that clearly favoured the home side.
Though no individual player ratings were provided, the match data paints a clear picture of the key performers. F. Vignaroli, the opener, and L. Fernandez, the penalty taker, were the match-winners on the scoresheet, but the collective defensive solidity and midfield control evident in the possession and shots statistics suggest a team-wide application that frustrated Chieri. The visiting side struggled to build sustained pressure, their six shots and two on target representing a season-low in attacking production for a match of this significance. Chieri will be left to rue a lack of creativity, their inability to work the goalkeeper with any regularity proving decisive.
The result sees Cairese survive the relegation play-off final, retaining their place in Serie D for another season. For Chieri, the defeat means a return to a lower tier, their campaign ending in disappointment after failing to find an answer to Cairese's first-half efficiency. The home side's ability to strike twice before the interval and then suffocate the contest through possession and territorial control was the defining difference on an evening when the data matched the scoreline. The 39 percent pre-match win probability assigned by the Lemeister model proved conservative, as Cairese delivered a performance that exceeded expectations across virtually every measurable dimension.
