Monterrey v Toluca: the model read
Monterrey meet Toluca in the Liga MX clausura - quarter-finals at Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Toluca on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.7 per match.
Monterrey arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Club America, L 1-3 v Atletico San Luis, W 2-1 v Chicago Fire, L 0-2 @ Leon.
Toluca are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Leon, W 4-0 v FC Juarez, W 2-0 v Austin, W 2-1 @ Club Queretaro.
Toluca hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Monterrey 0-1 Toluca.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
