San Martin S.J. secured a 3-2 victory over Deportivo Riestra in the Liga Profesional Argentina 2nd Phase - 2, a result the underlying numbers suggest was more comfortable than the final scoreline indicated. The Lemeister model had favoured a draw before kick-off with a 38% projection, but San Martin's dominance in the key attacking metrics and a vast expected goals advantage proved decisive.
Horacio Tijanovich opened the scoring for the home side in the 30th minute, with Santiago Salle providing the assist. Deportivo Riestra equalised 12 minutes later through Milton Celiz, who was set up by N. Sansotre. The match was finely poised at the break, but the second half belonged to San Martin. Tijanovich converted a penalty in the 59th minute to restore the lead, and Salle, who had earlier turned provider, scored in the 80th minute from a Marco Iacobellis assist. Gabriel Obredor pulled one back for Deportivo Riestra in the 90th minute, but San Martin held on.
The statistical breakdown paints a clear picture of San Martin's superiority. Their expected goals total of 2.15 dwarfed Deportivo Riestra's 0.19, the widest gap in the match data. San Martin generated 11 total shots with 4 on target, while the visitors managed just 3 attempts, only 2 of which tested the goalkeeper. The home side's attacking pressure was further illustrated by 8 shots from inside the box against just 1 from Deportivo Riestra, and a 6-2 advantage in corner kicks. Despite the visitors holding a slim 51-49 edge in possession, they were largely ineffective, completing only 52% of their passes to San Martin's 58%. The home side's 138 accurate passes outnumbered the away side's 130, further highlighting greater efficiency in possession. The foul count was lopsided at 21-12 in favour of Deportivo Riestra, contributing to four yellow cards for the visitors against two for San Martin. The goalkeeper saves column shows Deportivo Riestra's goalkeeper made one save, while San Martin's made none, consistent with the low shot volume from the visitors.
Individual performances were led by Santiago Salle, who earned the highest match rating of 9.2 for his goal and assist, reflecting direct involvement in two of San Martin's three goals. Horacio Tijanovich, with his brace, rated 7.9, while Gabriel Obredor's late consolation goal earned him an 8.0. Marco Iacobellis, who provided the assist for Salle's goal, was rated 7.0. Diego González contributed a rating of 7.2 for San Martin, while Milton Celiz earned 7.3 for Deportivo Riestra. The disciplinary record saw Rodrigo Sayavedra, Jonathan Goitia, Milton Celiz, and Nicolás Benegas booked for the visitors, while Lucas Diarte and Ayrton Portillo received yellow cards for the home side.
For San Martin, this victory provides an early boost in the 2nd Phase, demonstrating a clinical edge in front of goal that their expected goals data validated. Their 2.15 xG from 11 shots suggests efficient finishing, while Deportivo Riestra's 0.19 xG from 3 shots indicates minimal creative output. The visitors' discipline was a significant concern, with 21 fouls and four yellow cards, including one for substitute Nicolás Benegas in stoppage time. Deportivo Riestra, despite a spirited late rally through Obredor's goal, will be concerned by the defensive fragility and lack of attacking threat that the numbers clearly identify, particularly the 8-1 disparity in shots inside the box. The Lemeister model's projection of a draw proved inaccurate, as San Martin's efficiency and superior chance creation ultimately carried the day, with the data heavily favouring the home side across nearly every metric despite the final one-goal margin.
