Palmeiras v Ceara: the model read
Palmeiras meet Ceara in the Copa Do Brasil 3rd round at Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo. The model makes Palmeiras the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% PAL, 30% draw, 21% CEA.
Palmeiras rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1420. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 80% against 38%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 70%; double chance reads Palmeiras or draw 79%, Ceara or draw 51%.
Palmeiras arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Coritiba, W 1-0 v Chapecoense-sc, W 4-1 v Junior, W 3-0 @ Flamengo.
Ceara are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v CRB, D 1-1 @ America Mineiro, D 0-0 v Athletic Club, L 0-2 @ Goias.
Palmeiras hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
