Van reached the Cup final with a 1-0 victory over FC Noah at the Charentsavan City Stadium, a result that defied the Lemeister model's pre-match expectations. The model had favoured FC Noah with a 54 per cent win probability and a projected 2-0 victory, giving Van only an 18 per cent chance. A single goal in the 88th minute from L. Vardanyan, a normal goal with no assist recorded, proved decisive in a tightly contested semi-final. The match was won not through sustained pressure but through a single moment of finishing, as Van absorbed the superior expected flow of the contest and struck late.
The goal arrived late, as Van defended deep and capitalised on a match that had been shaped by discipline and caution. Vardanyan's strike was the only goal of the game, and although no further details of its creation are available, its timing was critical. Until that moment, neither side had found a way through, and the contest had been increasingly defined by a high number of fouls and bookings. With no detailed statistics for possession, shots, expected goals, or passing available, the match report must rely on the card count and goal data to reconstruct the narrative. However, the card count, the solitary goal, and the Lemeister model's projection of a 2-0 win for FC Noah strongly suggest that the away side dominated territory and chances, only to be denied by Van's defensive organisation.
The match was fractious, with nine cards issued in total. The first two came in the 25th minute, when Van's M. Odeyinka and FC Noah's Y. Eteki were both booked for separate incidents. U. Ajibona of Van followed in the 32nd minute, and O. Cancarevic of FC Noah received a yellow a minute later, as the first half became increasingly physical. The second half saw a flurry of cards: Van's J. Bationo and FC Noah's G. Manvelyan were both cautioned in the 57th minute, reflecting the ongoing tension. Bationo was shown a second yellow and a red card in the 90th minute, leaving Van to see out the final minutes with 10 men. Z. Khudaverdyan of FC Noah was booked in the 96th minute of added time, the final card of a disciplined but combative encounter.
The player ratings were not available for this report, which limits the depth of analysis on individual performances. However, Vardanyan's goal, scored in the 88th minute with no assist, marks him as the decisive contributor. Bationo's two yellow cards and subsequent red will be a concern for Van, with the defender suspended for the final. The high card count across both sides indicates a match where defensive solidity and tactical fouls were prioritised over creative play. Both teams made five substitutions, suggesting that managers sought to refresh legs and respond to the physical demands of the contest.
For Van, the victory is a significant achievement, securing a place in the Cup final against considerable odds. The result demonstrates their ability to frustrate a stronger opponent on paper, hold firm under sustained pressure, and strike at a critical moment, even while reduced to 10 men in the closing stages. The Lemeister model's projection of a 2-0 win for FC Noah will linger as a frustrating footnote for the away side, as they controlled the expected flow of the match but could not convert that control into a goal. For FC Noah, the defeat ends their Cup run, and the favouritism applied by the model will make the loss particularly disappointing, as they exit the competition having been undone by a single late moment from Vardanyan.
