Where the market is wrong on Poland U21 v Sweden U21
Poland U21 meet Sweden U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification group stage - 21 at Arena Katowice, Katowice.
Poland U21 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1500. Recent form leans Poland U21, 73% against 48%. Attacking output favors Poland U21 on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.9 per match.
Poland U21 arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 11 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Sweden U21, W 1-0 @ Montenegro U21, W 4-1 v Armenia U21, W 1-0 @ North Macedonia U21.
Sweden U21 are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Poland U21, L 1-3 v Finland U21, L 0-4 v Italy U21, D 2-2 v Montenegro U21.
Poland U21 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Poland U21 3-0 Sweden U21.
The market prices POL at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Sweden U21: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
