Where the market is wrong on Portugal U21 v Gibraltar U21
Portugal U21 meet Gibraltar U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification group stage - 20.
Portugal U21 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1400. Recent form leans Portugal U21, 80% against 5%. Attacking output favors Portugal U21 on expected goals, 3.1 to 0.2 per match.
Portugal U21 arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 16 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Gibraltar U21, L 1-2 @ Bulgaria U21, W 4-0 v Northern Ireland U21, W 3-0 v Scotland U21.
Gibraltar U21 are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 0 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Portugal U21, L 0-5 @ Czech Republic U21, L 0-1 v Bulgaria U21, L 0-1 v Azerbaijan U21.
The market prices POR at 97% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 18.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
