Guarda v Gondomar: the model read
Guarda meet Gondomar in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B group b - 19 at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 34% GUA, 38% draw, 28% GON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors Guarda on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 14%, over 2.5 goals around 8%. Draw no bet leans Guarda at 55%; double chance reads Guarda or draw 72%, Gondomar or draw 66%.
Guarda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Régua, L 2-6 @ Leça, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Machico.
Gondomar are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Coimbrões, L 0-1 @ AD Marco 09, D 0-0 v Camacha, W 1-0 @ Régua.
Gondomar hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarda 1-1 Gondomar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
