A 3-2 victory for Boca Juniors over River Plate in the Copa de la Liga Profesional quarter-final was largely defined by a devastating second-half attacking spell that yielded three goals in 21 minutes. The match scoreline, however, flattered River Plate’s late surge and masked a contest in which Boca’s finishing efficiency proved the decisive difference. The result represented an upset according to the Lemeister model, which had assessed the match as a close contest with a draw as the most likely outcome at 33 per cent probability, but with no clear favourite between the sides.
The scoring began early. Miguel Borja gave River Plate the lead in the 10th minute with a goal assisted by Claudio Echeverri. River held that advantage through the remainder of the first half, despite a rising disciplinary tempo that saw Echeverri booked for a yellow card in the 40th minute. The match turned decisively at the start of the second half. Miguel Merentiel equalised for Boca in the 46th minute, his finish set up by Luis Advíncula. That goal sparked a period of sustained pressure from the away side, and in the 62nd minute Edinson Cavani put Boca ahead with Kevin Zenón providing the assist. Merentiel struck again five minutes later, scoring unassisted to make it 3-1 and effectively settle the contest with 23 minutes of normal time remaining.
Despite the three-goal swing, the total number of shots and expected goals are absent from the data, so it is not possible to measure whether Boca’s efficiency was built on volume or precision. Their 67th-minute goal, however, created a two-goal cushion that River could not fully overturn. Paulo Díaz pulled one back for River in the seventh minute of added time with an unassisted goal, but it proved too late to force extra time. The high card count reflected the intensity of the Superclásico. Boca received five yellow cards – for Merentiel, Marcos Rojo, Cavani, Lautaro Blanco and Nicolás Figal – while River had six, booked through Echeverri, Nacho Fernández, Borja, Facundo Colidio, Rodrigo Villagra and Pablo Solari. Boca made four substitutions, River five.
The individual player ratings highlight Miguel Merentiel as the outstanding performer of the match, receiving a match-high 8.9 rating for his two-goal contribution. For River, Paulo Díaz was the highest-rated player on his team at 8.2, scoring the late consolation. Kevin Zenón earned a 7.7 rating for his role in Boca’s attacking play, while Claudio Echeverri (7.3) and Miguel Borja (7.2) were noted for their contributions to River’s early goal. Goalkeeper Sergio Romero of Boca also received a 7.2 rating, suggesting he made important interventions to preserve his side’s lead.
The result means Boca Juniors advance to the semi-finals of the Copa de la Liga Profesional, having overturned a first-half deficit with a clinical second-half attacking display. River Plate’s inability to maintain their early advantage, combined with the defensive lapses that conceded three goals in quick succession, proved costly. With the Lemeister model having projected a finely balanced contest, Boca’s ability to convert their chances when it mattered most was the clear difference.
