Treze inflicted a comprehensive 3-0 defeat on Potiguar Mossoró at the Estádio Edgar Borges Montenegro, a result that overturned the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had installed Potiguar Mossoró as marginal favourites with a 35 per cent win probability, and projected a 1-0 home victory. Instead, the visitors' clinical finishing rendered that projection redundant within the opening 70 minutes, securing an away win that was emphatic in both margin and execution.
The decisive tone was set early. Thiaguinho opened the scoring in the ninth minute, converting a normal goal to give Treze the lead. Potiguar Mossoró, having conceded early, were unable to rediscover any rhythm, and the home side's difficulties deepened nine minutes into the second half. In the 54th minute, Wallace Pernambucano dispatched a penalty to double the advantage, a goal that placed further pressure on a Potiguar Mossoró side already chasing the game. Any hopes of a fightback were extinguished in the 69th minute when Thiago Alagoano added a third normal goal, completing the scoring and ensuring the contest was beyond reach with over 20 minutes still to play.
The statistical record, while limited in breadth, underscores the one-sided nature of the contest. The absence of detailed possession, shot, or expected-goals figures restricts the depth of the numerical analysis, but the scoreline alone tells a clear story of Treze's efficiency in front of goal. Potiguar Mossoró failed to register a single goal from open play, while their opponents needed only three scoring actions to find the net on three occasions. The conversion rate from the away side's attack speaks to a disciplined final-third approach, where each of the three nameable goalscorers delivered when opportunities arose. With no cards issued, the match was not defined by disciplinary incidents, and the modest number of substitutions, two for Potiguar Mossoró and five for Treze, suggests a game that was controlled without requiring major tactical intervention.
In the broader context of the Serie D first phase, this result carries significant weight. Potiguar Mossoró entered the round as the side the Lemeister model favoured to win, projected to secure a narrow victory at home. Instead, they have suffered a heavy defeat on their own ground, a damaging outcome in a group where every point is precious and home advantage is typically a key factor. The clean sheet conceded and the three-goal margin leave them with ground to make up in the standings, and they will need to address their inability to create or convert chances in the next match.
For Treze, the victory is a statement result away from home, suggesting they are well-placed to challenge for a progression spot in the first phase. The three different goalscorers, Thiaguinho, Wallace Pernambucano, and Thiago Alagoano, each contributed directly to the scoreline, spreading the offensive responsibility across the team. The penalty conversion by Wallace Pernambucano demonstrated composure under pressure, while Thiago Alagoano's late strike sealed the win with a clinical finish. The clean sheet provides a strong platform for the remainder of the campaign, and the away side can build on this performance as they seek to establish themselves as contenders in the group. The pre-match model had given Treze only a 32 per cent chance of victory, making this an outcome that defies the statistical projection and underscores the unpredictability of the competition.
