United States v Paraguay

United States meet Paraguay in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes United States the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% USA, 31% draw, 32% PAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1870 to 1820, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 64%. Attacking output favors United States on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely United States 1-0 Paraguay, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.1.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans United States at 54%; double chance reads United States or draw 68%, Paraguay or draw 63%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.