Türkiye v Paraguay

Türkiye meet Paraguay in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. The model makes Paraguay the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% TUR, 31% draw, 35% PAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1850 to 1820, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 64%. Attacking output favors Türkiye on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.3.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Paraguay at 50%; double chance reads Türkiye or draw 65%, Paraguay or draw 65%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.