Paraguay v France

Paraguay meet France in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 27% PAR, 30% draw, 43% FRA.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1820. Recent form leans France, 74% against 64%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Paraguay 0-1 France, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans France at 61%; double chance reads Paraguay or draw 57%, France or draw 73%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.