Japan v Sweden

Japan meet Sweden in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at AT&T Stadium, Arlington. The model makes Japan the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% JPN, 31% draw, 31% SWE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1900 to 1820, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Japan, 72% against 62%. Attacking output favors Japan on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Japan 1-0 Sweden, from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Japan at 56%; double chance reads Japan or draw 69%, Sweden or draw 61%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.