France v Sweden

France meet Sweden in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at MetLife Stadium, New-York. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% FRA, 30% draw, 27% SWE.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1820. Recent form leans France, 74% against 62%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 Sweden, from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans France at 62%; double chance reads France or draw 73%, Sweden or draw 57%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.