France v Senegal

France meet Senegal in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group i at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% FRA, 30% draw, 28% SEN.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1850. Recent form separates little, 74% against 66%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 Senegal, from expected goals of 1.8 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans France at 60%; double chance reads France or draw 72%, Senegal or draw 58%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.