France v Morocco

France meet Morocco in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal at Gillette Stadium, Boston. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% FRA, 31% draw, 31% MAR.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1910. Recent form separates little, 74% against 72%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 Morocco, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans France at 55%; double chance reads France or draw 69%, Morocco or draw 62%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.