England v Argentina

England meet Argentina in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% ENG, 31% draw, 37% ARG.

The baseline ratings are close, 2040 to 2100, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 72%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely England 0-1 Argentina, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Argentina at 53%; double chance reads England or draw 63%, Argentina or draw 68%.

The market prices ENG at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Argentina: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.