Ecuador v Curaçao

Ecuador meet Curaçao in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group e at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The model makes Ecuador the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% ECU, 30% draw, 24% CUW.

Ecuador rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1860 to 1650. Recent form leans Ecuador, 66% against 52%. Attacking output favors Ecuador on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Ecuador 1-0 Curaçao, from expected goals of 1.8 to 0.6.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Ecuador at 65%; double chance reads Ecuador or draw 76%, Curaçao or draw 54%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.