Belgium v Senegal

Belgium meet Senegal in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Lumen Field, Seattle. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% BEL, 31% draw, 32% SEN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1960 to 1850, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 66%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Belgium 1-0 Senegal, from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.2.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Belgium at 54%; double chance reads Belgium or draw 68%, Senegal or draw 63%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.