Argentina v Switzerland

Argentina meet Switzerland in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% ARG, 30% draw, 27% SUI.

Argentina rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2100 to 1890. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 64%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Argentina 1-0 Switzerland, from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Argentina at 62%; double chance reads Argentina or draw 73%, Switzerland or draw 57%.

The market prices ARG at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Switzerland: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.