Nepal v India: the model read
Nepal meet India in the SAFF Championship group stage - 4 at Rasmee Dhandu Stadium, Malé, North Malé Atoll, Kaafu Atoll.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans India, 39% against 21%. Attacking output favors India on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans India at 67%; double chance reads Nepal or draw 54%, India or draw 78%.
Nepal arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Laos, L 0-1 v Malaysia, D 2-2 @ Bangladesh, L 0-1 v Vietnam.
India are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Tajikistan, L 1-3 @ Tajikistan, L 0-1 v Zimbabwe, L 0-2 @ Jamaica.
India hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Nepal 0-2 India.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
