Levante II edged past Badalona 2-1 at the Estadi Municipal de Badalona, a result that slightly favoured the away side in a contest where the numbers pointed to a fine margin. The Lemeister model had given Levante II a 37 percent chance of victory, with Badalona at 32 percent, and the narrow difference in probability was reflected in a match that turned on two second-half goals after a well-structured opening period.
Badalona took the lead in the 17th minute through Néstor Albiach, who found the net with a regular goal. The home side held that advantage until the hour mark, when Levante II equalised through Raúl Alcaina in the 59th minute. The decisive moment arrived in the 83rd minute, when Ferni scored what proved to be the winner, completing Levante II's comeback. No cards were issued, suggesting a contest that was decided by technical quality rather than disruption.
The statistical story of the match revolves around control versus efficiency. Without recorded shot, possession or expected goals data, the narrative is built on the timing and distribution of the goals. Badalona's early strike gave them a platform for a measured approach, but Levante II's equaliser just before the final third of the match forced the home side to abandon their game plan. The away side's winner then arrived with seven minutes of regular time remaining, a moment that typically pressures the losing team into pushing forward, but Badalona were unable to find a response.
Player ratings are not available for this match, but the goal scorers define the key contributions. Néstor Albiach's opener was the highlight of Badalona's first-half performance, a moment of precision that gave the home side the lead. Raúl Alcaina's equaliser provided the catalyst for Levante II's recovery, shifting momentum just before the final quarter of the match. Ferni's late winner was the decisive intervention, demonstrating the away side's ability to execute in critical moments. Without individual statistics, the impact of these players is measured purely by their goal contributions.
The substitutes used by both sides may have influenced the outcome, with Badalona making four changes and Levante II five. This volume of substitutions suggests that both managers sought tactical adjustments in the second half, though the data does not reveal which players were introduced or at what specific points. The absence of cards indicates a disciplined match, with neither side resorting to cynical fouls to disrupt the flow of play.
The result carries weight in the Group 3 second phase. Badalona, having taken the lead early, will be left to ponder their inability to build on that advantage, particularly as they could not create enough pressure after the 83rd minute to salvage a point. For Levante II, the victory away from home is valuable in a compact mini-league where margins are tight and every point matters. The Lemeister model's pre-match read of a 37 percent chance for Levante II proved accurate, underscoring the competitive balance of a match that was decided not by overwhelming dominance but by the finer details of timing and execution.
