Club Tijuana v Toluca: the model read
Club Tijuana meet Toluca in the Copa MX semi-finals at Estadio Caliente, Tijuana. The model makes Club Tijuana the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% CLU, 31% draw, 33% TOL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Club Tijuana, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Toluca on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Club Tijuana at 52%; double chance reads Club Tijuana or draw 67%, Toluca or draw 64%.
Club Tijuana arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Leon, W 3-1 v Tigres UANL, D 2-2 v El Salvador, W 2-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes.
Toluca are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Cruz Azul, L 1-2 v U.N.A.M. - Pumas, W 2-0 @ Guadalajara Chivas, D 3-3 @ Atlante FC.
Toluca hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toluca 1-0 Club Tijuana.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
