Where the market is wrong on Hong Kong v Cambodia
Hong Kong meet Cambodia in the FIFA Asean Cup final at Kai Tak Sports Park, Hongkong.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Hong Kong, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Hong Kong on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Hong Kong arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Cambodia, W 2-0 v Brunei, W 4-0 v Laos, L 0-2 @ Cambodia.
Cambodia are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Hong Kong, D 2-2 @ Timor-Leste, W 1-0 v Myanmar, L 1-3 @ Vietnam.
Hong Kong hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hong Kong 2-0 Cambodia.
The market prices HON at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Cambodia: a 13.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
