Where the market is wrong on China W v South Korea W
China W meet South Korea W in the Asian Games Women 3rd place at Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa, Shizuoka.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors South Korea W on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.
China W arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v South Korea W, L 0-2 @ Korea DPR W, W 1-0 v Vietnam W, W 5-1 v Philippines W.
South Korea W are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ China W, L 0-2 @ Japan W, W 6-3 v Uzbekistan W, D 1-1 v Korea DPR W.
China W hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: China W 0-1 South Korea W.
The market prices CHI at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on China W: a 11.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
