Where the market is wrong on Trinidad and Tobago v Dominican Republic
Trinidad and Tobago meet Dominican Republic in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 1 at Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain.
Dominican Republic rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1400. Recent form leans Dominican Republic, 55% against 29%. Attacking output favors Dominican Republic on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.1 per match.
Trinidad and Tobago arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Haiti, L 0-1 @ Louisville City, L 0-3 @ Russia, L 0-5 @ South Korea.
Dominican Republic are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Nicaragua, L 2-4 @ Panama, D 1-1 v Cuba, D 2-2 v El Salvador.
Trinidad and Tobago hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2016: Trinidad and Tobago 4-0 Dominican Republic.
The market prices TRI at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Dominican Republic: a 20.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
